Wandering Reveries

An interesting survey from Gallup suggests that the Hispanic population in the U.S. is shrinking and becoming less religious (as measured by attendance of church services). Most Hispanics are Catholic, but this population is growing older and only 43 percent consider themselves more religious compared to their Protestant counterparts (60%). Since 2008, Hispanics became less likely to identify as Catholic, while Protestant identification remained roughly the same.

Given the interests of this blog (politics), I can’t help but ponder on the implications of this survey if this trend should continue.

According to a new Gallup poll, if you are white and very religious, i.e., you attend religious services at least once every week, you are more likely to vote Republican (62%). On the other hand, if you are white and nonreligious, you are more likely vote Democratic (50%). Among Hispanics and Asians, the very religious are more likely to identify with the Republican party than the moderately religious or nonreligious, but the very religious still trend toward the Democratic party in these minority groups. And among blacks, the trend regardless of religious preference is strongly in favour of the Democratic party.

Gallup has been conducting this type of survey for several years now, and the trend has remained fairly constant. However, each racial group has a unique religious outlook determined by cultural experience, which I think is one reason the numbers for each group come out the way they do. Another factor which can account for not only voting behaviour (and frankly, is a better indicator of voting behaviour), but affects religious views as well, is income. Gallup argues that religion could allow Republicans to make inroads among Hispanic and Asian populations, but Republicans, particularly in Texas, have been making that argument for years to little effect, imho. The more important demographic is income growth, specifically among Hispanics. Values voting can be decisive, but studies, and years of common sense experience, continue to indicate that people vote their pocket book, i.e., their economic interests.