According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, one third of all Nevada voters have already cast their ballot, and turnout records are expected to continue to be broken in this second week of early voting.
According to figures released by the Nevada secretary of state’s office Monday, almost 374,000 people cast early ballots statewide through Sunday. Another 60,000 sent in absentee ballots, bringing total turnout in Nevada to 34 percent after the first nine days of voting.
Statewide, thirty-five thousand more Democrats than Republicans have already voted, and 77k nonpartisan/independents have cast their ballots.
This year, the Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with a 2.5 point lead over Romney in Nevada. Among the recent polls, the only one I have crosstabs for that also discusses the early voters is PPP, which shows that among those voters who have already voted Obama leads 61/39, while Romney has a 51/46 lead among those who have not voted (Source).
Romney is going to do a lot better in Nevada than McCain (and even when Democrats have won the state, as in 1996, Republicans have generally been much more competitive than McCain was, so don’t credit too much of Romney’s success here to Mormon efforts).
(h/t Paul Gronke)