Florida: The Absentee Ballots

Florida absentee ballots are steadily coming in: 275,000 through October 13th. The absentee ballots break down 44% Republican to 40% Democratic. The 4 point Republican advantage in absentee ballots is down from 17 points at this point in 2008, when Obama won the state by 2 points.

2.2 million Floridians have requested absentee ballots: 42% requested by Republicans vs 39% by Democrats. This 3 point Republican advantage is down from a 14 point advantage in 2008.

Those numbers are discouraging for Republicans, but Romney is currently leading in the state since October, according to most polls, and his average lead is 2.5 points (Source). However, we could see another swing back to President Obama in the next few weeks.

Long story short: Florida is going to be close yet again.

(h/t: Paul Gronke)