Some interesting things to look at this week. In the above chart from the Washington Post, you can see how the Republican results in the Electoral College have declined significantly since 1988, which indicates - according to the Post - that Romney’s margin of error is fairly small, but that could have been determined just by looking at the 2012 electoral map.
Which is where some analysis from Mark Blumenthal comes in. A recent poll of 3 swing states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania (personally I don’t consider this a swing state, since a Republican hasn’t won it since 1988) - by Quinnipiac University shows a tight race in these states. Recent polls also show the President ahead in Virginia. However, as Blumenthal points out, Obama’s numbers in these states are better than they were in both May and June 2008. Obama is also performing well in Arizona, which may end up being icing on the electoral cake if he can flip the state (and presuming he wins).
And the race is just beginning in earnest. The Romney supporting super-PAC - Restore Our Future - has made a $3.7 million ad buy in nine states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire. So, get ready for a slugfest.
A few notes:
- Despite what some earlier (dare I say unreliable) polls may have suggested, Republican voters are lining up with Romney.
- Do not pay attention to the national polls.