The GOP Race: AZ & MI - Updated
Two new polls are out from Public Policy Polling: one for Arizona and one for Michigan.
Both show the race narrowing in those two states, but in opposite directions. In Arizona, Romney’s lead is 3 points over Santorum (Source). In Michigan, Santorum’s lead is now only 4 points over Romney (Source
Reblogging this old post on the Public Policy Polling surveys from last week so that I can compare them with the latest American Research Group polls for both states.
In Arizona, ARG shows that Romney’s lead has decreased to only 4 point from their previous poll (Source). And in Michigan, the race is tied, because Romney is within the poll’s margin of error (Source).
Looking at ARG’s survey of Arizona (here), it seems obvious that Santorum is benefiting from Gingrich’s collapse in the state; however, they do not post their crosstabs, so that cannot be confirmed. The same cannot be inferred from the Michigan results (here), where Romney may be benefiting more from the collapse of Gingrich.
In the Arizona survey, ARG asked for voter preference by early vote. Among those surveyed, 48 percent had already voted, and among those early voters, Romney lead Santorum 50 to 29 percent. If that can be generalized statewide, then I think early voting may once again have helped Romney, and we will find out on Tuesday.
