The Super PAC Campaign
Looking at the poll numbers (Florida) and Gingrich’s recent fundraising haul ($2m), if he wins Florida, it seems to contradict everything I know and have ever been taught about campaigning, because Newt has run one of the most dysfunctional campaigns I have ever seen.
For example, Gingrich got in late on chasing absentee voting, and Romney now has an 11 point lead among early voters according a Rasmussen poll (Source). Given his lead on Gingrich during this time, I would have expected a bigger advantage, but it’s still an advantage for Romney going into January 31st, but how much remains to be seen, especially with Gingrich surging again.
So, if Gingrich’s campaign has been so dysfunctional, what can account for his rise and the possibility that he could upset Romney once again? The super-PAC. They have hired field directors, set up phone banks and coordinated GOTV efforts, i.e., everything the Gingrich campaign has either been unable, or just neglected, to do (Source). They have built, and are building, the infrastructure that Newt has lacked. They’re changing the dynamic of this campaign, because without this infrastructure, I don’t see Newt being able to compete with Romney.
Beyond the immediate nomination fight, this raises a lot of legal questions (and for me stresses the need for transparency) and can possibly alter the future of campaign and elections, but as a practical matter, their efforts may stretch this nomination fight out longer than I previously expected. I still think Romney wins Florida on the basis of the ballots already cast (watch me be wrong as I was with regard to SC) and ultimately the nomination.
