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In a prior post, we looked at the early vote numbers in the 15 most populous counties. In the Republican primary, there were 692,866 people who voted in early in the Presidential election, which was 48 percent of the total 1.4 million people (11 percent of registered voters) who voted in the Presidential primary. In the Democratic primary, there were 303,203 people who voted in early in the Presidential election. which was 52 percent of the total 587,146 (4.5 percent of registered voters) who voted in the Presidential election.
How does this compare to prior years? In the 2010 Republican primary, 1.5 million people voted, which represented 11.4 percent of registered voters, and in the 2008 Republican primary, 1.4 million people voted, which represented 10.7 percent of registered voters (Source). Turnout for the 2010 Democratic primary was 680,548 (5.2 percent of registered voters) and 2.9 million (22.54 percent of registered voters) in the 2008 Democratic primary (same source). [Note: voting age population percentages are obviously lower than the registered voter percentages cited].
While turnout has been bemoaned as low and blamed on the lack of competition in the Presidential race, the statewide turnout for the Republican primary has actually been comparable to 2008 and 2010 when there were competitive races for President and Governor respectively. The Democratic primary similarly returned to a norm; the 2008 primary would be the exception due to the excitement over the contest and the belief that Texas would have an impact on the race.
You can see the results for all the races here; many will be decided two months from now, since we’re going to have some run-off elections.
Turnout for early voting has been surprisingly high given that the Presidential race is effectively over.
According to the Texas Secretary of State’s Office, 343,497 Texans have voted early in the 15 most populous counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, El Paso, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Montgomery, Wlliamsom, Nueces, Galveston, and Cameron). Dallas Morning News reporter Christi Hoppe notes that the 239 counties usually produce as many early votes as these 15 most populous counties, which suggests that statewide early vote total could be something around 680,000.
By way of comparison, there were 306,402 early voters in the 15 most populous counties in 2010 (Republican primary), and 1.5 million total voters in the Republican primary election. There were 303,338 early voters in the 15 most populous counties in 2008 (Republican primary), and 1.4 million total voters in the primary election (Source for 2008 & 2010 vote totals).
It remains to be seen if the turnout on Election Day (tomorrow) will be very high since it is the day after a long holiday weekend. Even if turnout is not high, the final total turnout could be near 1 million. Conventional wisdom suggests this is good for the incumbents, who have been tagged with the “establishment” label, because the voters turning out may not be committed ideologues.
Social media is the new block walking -
If that’s the case, then you’re doing it wrong, because social media can’t replace direct contact with a voter.
I discussed this a little last week, when I discussed online advertising, but the deserved fascination with social media’s impact on elections often strays into the realm of the ridiculous with headlines like that above, which come from the San Antonio Express-News with comments like, “Block walking is so 2008.”
Social media a great tool for engaging voters and providing them with another source for information; however, as a Pew survey showed in 2009, many of the people using social media are already active in traditional areas of political participation. This has been something I’ve seen as I watch the Twitter feeds of supporters of one or the other of the Texas Senate candidate in the Republican primary, i.e., many of the people are activists who were already supporting these campaigns in other, more traditional ways.
And even as we move further into the 21st Century, going door-to-door is an effective means of moving voters, though not necessarily the most cost effective, as Donald Green and Alan Gerber showed in their book Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. In large statewide campaigns, it’s difficult for a candidate to go door-to-door, so social media is a good tool, just like television ads and radio, but it shouldn’t replace grassroots efforts by volunteers to go door-to-door in urban/suburban areas. And candidates in small districts, like state house or state senate, shouldn’t become so enamoured of social media that they ignore making in person contact with the voters.
Use all the tools at your disposal, including social media, but don’t let anyone convince you that the traditional methods are somehow out of date.
“No one is [immune]. And this slow suicide — as the great Molly Ivins called it — will continue unabated until the industry swallows hard and takes its product — every last newspaper — behind a paywall.” —
David Simon on the news that the Times-Picayune will no longer be a daily paper (Source).
Mr Simon, while I appreciate your work on The Wire, I can’t disagree more. Putting content behind a paywall isn’t going to save newspapers, but only further their decline and death. The salvation of the newspaper industry will be to follow the example of media outlets like the Texas Tribune, which is a non-profit corporation funded by donors and thriving while other papers are declining (e.g., the Fort Worth Star-Telegram recently closed their Austin bureau).
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Book Review: Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card
Every time I’ve gone into the science fiction section of a book store, I’ve inevitably picked up an Orson Scott Card book and just as inevitably put it back down and buy the biography, history or current events book I have in my hand. But I finally got around to reading Card’s Ender’s Game - primarily motivated by the revelation that they are turning it into a movie - and I was not disappointed, because this is definitely one of the best science fiction books I have read. Some people say that the ending is predictable, and yes, it’s not exactly an earth shattering ending; however, I wasn’t looking for that - just something entertaining, insightful and relaxing. I got all of that.
With the announcement that President Obama was giving his full support to gay marriage, there has been some speculation that he has damaged himself among black voters who oppose gay marriage (55 percent to 42). One Time contributor has said that Obama has made “a courageous bet that black voters won’t punish him.”
Except black voters have not been shown to vote on social issues, but rather on economic issues, particularly those related to poverty and low income.* As discussed previously on this blog when Gallup released their poll on religion and partisanship, the religiosity of black voters has little impact on their partisan voting behaviour, i.e., they will vote for the Democratic candidate regardless of whether they are very religious or non-religious. Indeed, black voters have voted in particularly high numbers for Democratic candidates since FDR, and exit polls in 2000, 2004 and 2008 showed black support for Gore at 90, Kerry at 88, and Obama at 95 percent.
On the other hand, evangelical voters are not wild about Romney - giving him less support (69 percent) than Bush (79) and McCain (73) - however, they support him more than Obama, and his support among evangelicals has increased from 40 percent in October 2011. You can read the results of that survey here.
Despite any distractions about religious voting demographics - whether it is black voters and gay marriage, or evangelicals and Romney - this election will turn on what is has turned since the Republican nomination began last year, and that is, the economy and the voter’s perception of it.
* I think some clarification is in order here. Voters at the lower end of the income spectrum make decisions based primarily on their economic situation. Since many black voters are unfortunately at the lower end of the income spectrum, their decisions, according to studies, are based on their situation, as with other low income voters.
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